Darren Ripton

With tariffs and trade tensions having peaked in the second quarter, greater certainty has provided for a period of relief the second half of 2025 and markets have performed strongly since the Liberation Day sell-off. The events in Venezuela provide another reminder of the unpredictability of geopolitical events as we rolled into 2026, and we remain mindful of both known and unknown risks. However, oil prices have been relatively stable and there has been no material spillover into mainstream assets.

We enter the new year cautiously optimistic that against a backdrop of lower inflation expectations in most regions, Central Banks that are willing to reduce rates to support growth as necessary, in combination with fiscal support (at least in some regions), that capital markets will continue to perform well. That said we do acknowledge that valuations do look stretched in some asset classes and although earnings estimates continue to be met (and in some cases exceeded), the possibility of disappointment has increased. We are conscious that this is the case, and continue to manage well diversified portfolios, which are constructed to deliver good outcomes for our clients over the longer term.

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