Tertius Bonnin

2026 is promising to be a defining year. Consensus expectations are for another year of resilient global growth and tame inflation. In the US, the AI investment boom is underway and productivity growth appears to be picking up. This suggests a supportive macro backdrop for earnings growth in the year ahead. However, the world is never that simple. Confidence in American Exceptionalism is on the ebb and geopolitical events are now driving the global news cycle. Governments now also face a potential showdown with bond markets as debt levels in the developed world reach record highs. As we look for opportunities, we're attracted to Japan and the wider Asia Pacific region where relative valuations are attractive and earnings upgrades are gaining momentum.

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