2026 Q1 Outlooks

Raymond Backreedy
Sparrows Capital
Global equity markets delivered another strong year in 2025, supported by broad-based gains across regions and continued investor focus on technology and cyclical sectors. MSCI ACWI recorded an annual rise of approximately +22% in USD (around +14% in GBP and +8% in EUR), driven by robust returns across both developed and emerging markets. Over the last quarter the ACWI delivered positive returns across major currencies, with gains of around +3.4% in GBP, +3.5% in EUR and +3.3% in USD terms. Despite the tumultuous H1 tariff wars, ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainties, 2025 was another strong year for risk assets (i.e., global equity markets); Despite market turmoil and uncertainty, Global diversification across regions and asset classes were beneficial. however, potential headwinds remain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, intermittent trade policy uncertainty, inflation and central bank policy shifts will likely continue to influence market dynamics in 2026. We emphasise that advisors and end clients remain invested in globally diversified multi asset portfolios, aligned to the appropriate strategic asset allocation that matches the clients' risk appetite around tolerance for loss and drawdown; and to resist the temptation to time markets (tops or bottom), switch between defensive and risk assets or pick regions, sectors or stocks, all of which have been shown to erode performance in the long term, with the consequential sub optimal outcome for the end investor.


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