Ryan Paterson

US economic data continues to support our view that the consumer remains resilient and labour market conditions are benign. Political pressure on the Federal Reserve raises medium-term concerns around central bank independence, reinforcing our underweight position in US Treasuries. Geopolitical risks remain elevated as the post-1945 rules-based international order is increasingly challenged, and gold continues to serve as a useful portfolio diversifier. We took profits on broader commodities following recent price strength. With recession risk low and inflation contained, we see no clear catalyst for an equity bear market. While valuations are demanding, we expect earnings growth to drive returns. We maintain our diversified equity exposure, including Value stocks outside the US, and remain negative on the US dollar.

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