Edward Lloyd

We remain overweight equities, supported by resilient corporate earnings and a broadly constructive macroeconomic backdrop. Earnings growth is underpinned by strong nominal activity and supportive fiscal policy, while moderating inflation has reduced pressure on margins and lowered the risk of further aggressive monetary tightening. We remain underweight bonds due to an unfavourable risk-reward profile. Elevated fiscal deficits and increased sovereign issuance limit capital appreciation in government bonds, while corporate credit spreads remain compressed despite late-cycle risks, offering limited upside. We are constructive on alternatives, favouring assets that provide diversification and inflation resilience. Gold remains a core holding, supported by its defensive characteristics amid geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand. We are also positive on transition-related commodities, benefiting from investment linked to electrification, decarbonisation and data-centre build-out.

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