Olivia Geldenhuys

2025 began under a cloud of uncertainty, yet many of the year's major market themes unfolded as expected. Regional divergence defined the landscape with the US facing valuation pressures and tariff drag. Meanwhile Europe, the UK and emerging markets benefited from defence, infrastructure spending, and AI-linked commodities demand. Change and rotation define the outlook for 2026. Rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, and growing AI investment could boost global growth and profits. These dynamics could favour previously unloved areas such as US small caps and cyclicals, while dominant tech names may struggle to maintain leadership. Geopolitical flashpoints, policy uncertainty and the lingering impact of tariffs could disrupt momentum. Weak growth could drive defensive strategies, while rapid acceleration might trigger inflation and tighter monetary policy.

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